Statistics

Logan
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The Sproggalots
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13 October 2009 - 04:15 EDT
#61

it´s really hard to know who is more skilled with that system.I think ns is a complex game and that kind of stats doesn´t show all the ns universe.

And I want to add more situations as example:

 

-Hive dropper doesn´t kill, only scout the hive.

-The people who kill nodes.

-Lerk.

-The people who kill nodes in jp/ha vs mass fades (really typical).

- If you take 3 min to go from base to overlook, maybe you will check all the camping spots and you won´t die.But that is just stupid and useless for your team.Same if you are defending nodes.

-People who doesn´t communicate,rage,etc.

-Bad commander who doesn´t drop medpacks.

 

And this are only some situations of the game, without count players interactions, strats, teamplay...

It´s really hard think in skill in terms of Kill ratio.Kill/Death ratio is better but isn´t enough.And we are speaking in terms of frags but not in terms of TIME of the game too.

Are more valuable frags/defences/capper killing in the early game than in middle game.

To end, this system will be accurate?Maybe not.

It could be interesting? Yes.For example by test-error we should see in the results that we are commenting now.

INHO? show only how many flatline fades died.

ascensol-d
Miglecz++
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13 October 2009 - 07:41 EDT
#62

Just collect all sort of information.

Datamining is another story.

Who gonna write that amx plugin?

lump
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13 October 2009 - 08:13 EDT
#63
I have absolutely no problem with implementing this model but anyone who thinks it can show anything beyond a list of randomised numbers.. is a fool.. any set of confined random numbers will show some correlation if the sample size is large enough so that's a crap excuse.
ZiGGY
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13 October 2009 - 10:26 EDT
#64

that's what a statistic is /facepalm

Tweadle
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13 October 2009 - 11:00 EDT
#65

Jiriki's already declared that there's not such thing as 'true information'.

He's tried to explain to you how regardless of your fragging, each action (whether it be spores, tanking, baiting) will influence the result towards either a win or a loss and so it will be included in the trueskill system.

It an imperfect model that makes a very good attempt at mathematically portraying overall skill.

The beauty of Jiriki's system is that it will take into account all of the unquantifiable actions that you're moaning about. He's explained why to you already, and very eloquently too I might add. As someone who lead my team, motivated my team and did all the shitty jobs for my team I can still relatively comfortably say that my input can be mathematically taken into account using the win/loss, player to player system that he's described to you.

It's very daunting and, not being a maths student, I won't even begin to comprehend the details but I can theoretically agree that it's possible. I know that you're thinking "wtf, how can he measure the fact that I did this!?" but this is an area where you won't ever understand the actual mechanics and just have to sensibly evaluate the results and concede that there are people that a very clever - much more clever than you! Jiriki put forward the results and they are overwhelmingly compelling and "only a fool" can ignore them. I'd like to hear your response to the results directly, in fact.

Actions can be measured. Psychology does use statistics to measure the likelihood of Bob wanting to kill himself. The stock market is approaced mathematically and the maths is used alongside a degree of human judgement and reflection to make an even more accurate assessment. Economics, itself, is a whole subject dedicated to quantifying behaviours and measuring trends. Whether trueskill is 99% accurate or 60% accurate, it can still be used alongside your own personal feelings to make a further informed decision. A problem only technically arises where the system is less than 51% accurate (though I would say the 'acceptable' level of accuracy is much higher).

I'd also like to add that some roles are more important and though a player might be equally amazing at gorging as another is at fading, the value of the player relative to the outcome of the loss is what is most important. That amazing fade has more value than that amazing gorge and so I think you should see it less as a measurement of skill and more as a measurement of value. The likelihood, at the end of the day, is that the amazing gorge will be recognised as such and recruited duly. If he declines, then perhaps the system will have been offered an imperfection but the system doesn't claim to evaluate perfectly, it claims to offer the probability of a player being of a certain value. In the common case of having a player who is an adept fade go skulk, his value is still measured by his participation in the win. A team would only be using him if his value to the team was significant, otherwise he would be sat and not played at all.

There are a million little examples that you could put forward in an attempt to undermine the working effectiveness of the system and to every example the answer would be the same; that the system only measures the probability that a player is valuable and that if a player makes a sacrificial decision that is beneficial to the team, the action will be taken into account no matter how intangible.

I'm still not sure if I'd like an accurate ranking of skill though anyway. I like the dynamic of finding a player and measuring his worth through your own eyes.

lump
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13 October 2009 - 11:48 EDT
#66

Sorry tweadle, I cant be bothered to read your lengthy post as it seemed kinda irrelevant to what I'm stressing, so.

My only qualm is encouraging the attitude that the stats will be meaningful by the use of phrases such as:

jiriki wrote:

Stats are useful when you understand the underlying factors. Actually calculating individual player rankings from a team game is not impossible, it just requires advanced mathematics. 

I know he said that there is no such thing as true data... and rightly so, but the number of comments stating how useful these stats will be severely outweighs the number of stats which stress how fickle they are... I know how easily NS players latch onto dodgy statistics to promote themselves and such, which is a very BAD and WRONG attitude when it comes to things like skill

sublime
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13 October 2009 - 13:47 EDT
#67

People don't latch onto statistics. Not in this community anyway. Remember when Retry tried to join Levi because he was 1st in the surftown or whatever ratings. We all laughed in his face...

lump
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13 October 2009 - 21:07 EDT
#68
pfff, people rave on about frags all the time
ZiGGY
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14 October 2009 - 22:56 EDT
#69

protip: if you let them have the last word they'll shut up

 

also fortune is the most active member, that's pretty weak

sublime
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15 October 2009 - 10:01 EDT
#70

Unfortunate you might say!

 

Shit now I have to think of something relevant to the topic....

 

OK

 

Yea statistics can be useful Tom, welding would be my number fucking one. Welding wins games and people that don't do it or slack about it RAGE ME HARD

lump
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15 October 2009 - 23:03 EDT
#71
unless you run around welding while fades are swiping at you :P  BUT YAR IN GENERAL THAT R BE TRU
Voodo
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16 October 2009 - 06:19 EDT
#72
fortune wrote:
unless you run around welding while fades are swiping at you :P  BUT YAR IN GENERAL THAT R BE TRU

gonzo actually did that on an official against m4g

Bombing for peace is like fucking for virginity.
Voodo was here.
Tweadle
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16 October 2009 - 06:50 EDT
#73

Lump wrote: "Sorry tweadle, I cant be bothered to read your lengthy post as it seemed kinda irrelevant to what I'm stressing, so."

Lies! You read it and wet your pants, tom!

lump
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16 October 2009 - 23:59 EDT
#74

wet my pants laughing? lol

Nah, I don't have the will power to read posts longer than 5 lines on a forum. >_<

ZiGGY
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17 October 2009 - 10:39 EDT
#75

all those drugs do give you a short attention span :o

Dr_G
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31 October 2009 - 05:28 EDT
#76

 

i

I blame the gatherfeature on the website which has increased the activity of the competitive players. (VERY WELL DONE JIRIKI! The first admin who is INCREASING the number of players! ) Even though I think it is the combination of the traditional increase in the beginning of fall PLUS the gatherfeature which is really boosting our community! Jiriki you got my respect for this!

 

 

GibbZ
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31 October 2009 - 11:33 EDT
#77

Or maybe macpersil it's also the fact alot of oldskool players are coming back in preperation for NS2 and for the last ENSL season?

Not taking away anything from the gather system, as that has brought in a few new players imo and also has kept activity up.

ZiGGY
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31 October 2009 - 13:43 EDT
#78

is annual cycle and ns2 news liek, if you look at the number of people who actually play gathers and then go from there you can't really say that's causing such a large server increase :P

Voodo
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31 October 2009 - 13:46 EDT
#79
mp, actually the built in gather was my idea, so i hope i get ur respect too (doubt so ), jiriki implemented it, and i also thank him for tha t:)
Bombing for peace is like fucking for virginity.
Voodo was here.
frG
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31 October 2009 - 14:23 EDT
#80
Almaty wrote:

 

i

I blame the gatherfeature on the website which has increased the activity of the competitive players. (VERY WELL DONE JIRIKI! The first admin who is INCREASING the number of players! ) Even though I think it is the combination of the traditional increase in the beginning of fall PLUS the gatherfeature which is really boosting our community! Jiriki you got my respect for this!

 

 

I see you are showing a graph that shows how much natural-selection servers there are, herefore i must mention the fact that there was a bug in the server listing, making it not show all the servers, usually around ~80, when you spamclicked the refresh ocassionally all 120 would show up. I believe this bug is fixed, and therefore your graph doesn't represent it the right way.

 

WHY DONT YOU GO AND FUCK OFF THEN?
U GO?
Dr_G
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31 October 2009 - 16:37 EDT
#81

nope frG the number of the NS Servers is checked via a website.

frG
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31 October 2009 - 17:29 EDT
#82
Almaty wrote:

nope frG the number of the NS Servers is checked via a website.

Yes, but ultimately those servers are still requested from the master server browser, how else would the website know if a server is announcing.

WHY DONT YOU GO AND FUCK OFF THEN?
U GO?
sublime
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1 November 2009 - 06:51 EST
#83

I would tend to agree with frag because this seems like a fucking huge increase for no reason at all. Those gather servers were already running so how the FUCK can you attribute the increase to gathers?! I think we all appreciate the work Jerky has done here but this is ridonkulous..

Dr_G
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1 November 2009 - 09:52 EST
#84

Well i dont know the source but I think its not the bug of the Master Server its the bug of the Steamserver browser.

There always have been an increase from June to Oct and there loads of new servers

BerglunD
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1 November 2009 - 16:08 EST
#85

name one thats not filled with bots and called "dannys little showroom"

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